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Survival of the Fittest Reigns at the Stock Market
PREFACE
INTRODUCTION
1. THE S-SHAPED ADVENTURE
What do computers and rabbits have in common?
S-Curves and Substitutions
Sustained Growth
Invariants
The Nonsense about Safe Driving
Do All Animals Die at the Same Age?
2. COMPETITION, ECOSYSTEMS, AND THE STOCK MARKET
Setting the Scene
Two Kinds of Competition
A Vocabulary that Yields Insights
Stock-Market Attention
Stock-Market Value
Natural Selection
Noisy Stocks
The Attention Factor
Harmony in Action
Market Shares
Why Companies Split Their Stocks
Recapitulation
3. NYSE’S MOST IMPORTANT SPECIES: THE DOW JONES
Stock-Market Invariants
How to Detect Stock-Market Bubbles and Anticipate When They May Burst
What Really Grows at the Stock Market?
Predicting the Dow
Forecasting Each One of the 30 Industrials
4. SEASONS OF GROWTH AND SEASONS OF CHAOS
The Four Seasons of a Growth Cycle
Like Shakespearean Plays
Alternating Between Growth and Chaos
Large Time-Frame Volume Curves for the NYSE
Correlation between the Exchange Volumes and the DJIA
Where Are You on the Curve?
A Second Lease on Life
5. THE COMPETITION ARENA
The Halloween Indicator Revisited
The 30 Industrials Come of Age
How Much Does Winning on the Stock-Market Floor Help the Investor?
An Intricate Landscape
Isometrics
The "Ineffective" Stock Split
Winners and Losers
The 30 Industrials on October 30, 1998
In Summary
6. BEYOND THE S-CURVE
More than One Species in the Niche
Attacker’s Advantage, Defender’s Counterattack
Competition Management
Stock, Bonds, Cash, Real Estate
Stocks Exchange vs. Bonds Exchange
CONCLUSION
APPENDIX A. VALUE AND VOLUME: WEIGHTS AND PROBABILITIES
APPENDIX B. S-CURVES: MATHEMATICAL FORMULATIONS
NOTES AND SOURCES
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
INDEX |
