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Much of the research work at GROWTH DYNAMICS has been published in international
journals. Below is a selection of the most representative articles.
The Relationship between Entropy and Complexity Quantitatively: The Case of Throwing a Fair Die in the Very Long Run , T. Modis, submitted for pubication. See preprint https://osf.io/bxr3h/.
The Preponderance of Electric Vehicles and the Availability of “Green” Electricity, T. Modis, chapter in a book edited by Devezas et al. to be published. See preprint DOI: https://osf.io/tf6j2/.
Mass Shootings Will Keep Spiraling Upward without Big Changes in Gun Laws, T. Modis, published online in Scientific American on 28-Aug-2023 (see also as preprint at DOI:10.31219/osf.io/vczum.)
American society keeps a lid on the number of deaths from guns and car accidents but not from mass shootings, T. Modis, published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Elsevier), DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122753. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pkhq6.
Forecasting the Mix of World Energy Needs by mid-21st Century, T. Modis, chapter in a book edited by Devezas et al. with title "Global Challenges in Climate Change, Technological Foresight and Risks Assessment" published by Springer Nature, ISBN 978-3-031-16469-9. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/jgrky.
Links between Entropy, Complexity, and the Technological Singularity, T. Modis, published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Elsevier), DOI: doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121457. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/6nwf9.
Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting, see preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/mrwu3. These are my contributions to a massive review article with title "Forecasting: theory and practice" published in the International Journal of Forecasting (Elsevier), 20 January, 2022. "2.3.19 The natural law of growth in competition", "3.8.12 Dealing with logistic forecasts in practice".
Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19, A. Debecker and T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 163 (2021) 120432. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.220.120432. For full text see preprint DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.09.20126128.
Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update, T. Modis, published in The 21st Century and Global Futures, A. Korotayev, D. LePoire (eds), Springer, (2020) pp 101-104. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/np23b
Forecasting Energy Needs with Logistics,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 139, (2019) 135-143. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fzs4d.
The Blockchain Curve: An S-Curve Study on Bitcoin,
T. Modis, research study published electronically on the Internet by DORSEY HOLDINGS, November 2017.
A Hard-Science Approach to Kondratieff's Economic Cycle,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 122,(2017) 63-70. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/t8a2x.
La Borsa come ecosistema,
V. Almeida, Ticino Management, Giugno, 2014.
Long-Term GDP Forecasts and the Prospects for Growth,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80, (2013) 1557-1562. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/aqcht
Why the Singularity Cannot Happen,
T. Modis, see preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zsr63. Published inSingularity Hypothesis, A. H. Eden et al. (eds.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, (2012), 311-339.
Theodore Modis on Chaisson's "A Singular Universe of Many Singularities: Cultural Evolution in a Cosmic Context",
T. Modis, Singularity Hypotheses, A. H. Eden et al. (eds.), The Frontiers Collection, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, (2012), p 441.
Insights on Competition from a Science-Based Analysis,
T. Modis, see preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/w4r8k. Published in Advances in Psychology Research, Volume 88, Alexandra M. Columbus (ed.), Nova Publishers, New York, (2012) 1-25.
US Nobel Laureates: Logistic Growth versus Volterra-Lotka,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (2011) 559–564. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/93tkb
On Niall Ferguson's "Complexity and Collapse",
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77, (2010) 1412-1422. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/upj7s.
Anticipating the Economic Turnaround with S-Curves,
T. Modis, written and translated into German for Vienna's Die Presse, (for the German version click here).
Where Has the Energy Picture Gone Wrong?,
T. Modis, World Future Review, 1, No 3, June-July 2009.
Sunspots, GDP, and the Stock Market,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 74, (2007) 1508-1514. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zse25. Also reproduced in Cycles Magazine, 47, No 1, November 2020, 34-44.
Strengths and Weaknesses of S-Curves,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 74, No 6, 2007. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/r5zk7
The Normal, the Natural, and the Harmonic,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 74, No 3, (2007) 391-404. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/84tgs
Reply to Martino's comments on "The normal, the natural, and the harmonic", T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 74, No 3, (2007) 402. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/3asu2
The Singularity Myth,
T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73, No 2, (2006) 104-112. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/3m9cn
Human Behaviors Encountered During the Different Phases of the Kondratieff Cycle,
T. Modis, Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security, T.C. Devezas(ed.), IOS Press, Amsterdam, (2006) 195-204. See prepring DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/s3cmp
The End of the Internet Rush, T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, No 8, (2005) 938-943. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/jt69h
Cycles of Political Violence: Urban Guerrilla and Insurgent Groups, T. Modis. This is a paper that has been published in the Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on the Influence of Chance Events and Socioeconomic Long Waves in the New Arena of Asymmetric Warfare, Covilhã, Portugal, 14-18 February 2005. IOS Press, 2006, ISBN 1-58603-588-6. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/a6sj3
Urban guerrilla activities in Greece, by A. Konstandopoulos and T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 72, No 1, (2005) 49-58. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/7n6qd
Discussion of Huebner Article, by T. Modis, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 72, No 8, (2005) 987-1000. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/nwzjr
The Limits of Complexity
and Change, by T. Modis, The Futurist, May-June, 2003.
A Scientific Approach
to Managing Competition, by T. Modis, The Industrial Physicist,
February/March, 2003.
Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 69, No 4, (2002) 377-404. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/h7dtq
Technological Forecasting at the Stock Market, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 62, No 3, (1999) 173-202. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ctd6s
Complexity and Competition
at the Stock Market, by T. Modis, Proceedings of the 5th
International Conference of the Decision Sciences Institute, 4-7 July
1999, Athens, Greece.
Genetic Re-Engineering
of Corporations, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, 56, No 2, (1997) 107-118. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fdhe9. This article received the journal's Outstanding-Paper-of-the-Year
Award.
La santé sans la
médecine, est-ce prévisible? by T. Modis, Médecine & Hygiène,
No 2083, 1995.
Structurer une entreprise
selon sa "saison", by T. Modis, Direction et Gestion des Entreprises,
62, No 157, (1996) 49-59.
Approaching the New
Millenium, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change,
62, No 2, (1999) 111-114. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/dv983.
A Second Lease on
Life for Technological Forecasting, by T. Modis, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 62, No 1, (1999) 29-32. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/xnuaf.
Limits to Cycles
and Harmony in Revolutions, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting
& Social Change, 59, No 1, (1998) 33-38. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/rpnys
Taking Strategy Cues from
Mother Nature, by T. Modis, Handbook of Business Strategy,
Faulkner & Gray, New York, (1995) 59-64.
Life's Ups and Downs,
The Guardian, January 12, 1995.
Life Cycles
- Forecasting the Rise and Fall of Almost Anything, by T. Modis,
The Futurist, SepteMber-October 1994.
Technological Substitutions
in the Computer Industry, by T. Modis, Encyclopedia of Microcomputers,
volume 28, (1993) 331-340. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/6k3rp
Determination of the
Uncertainties in S-curve Logistic Fits, by A. Debecker and T. Modis,
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 46, (1994) 153-173. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/n53pd
Determining the
Service Life Cycle of Computers, by T. Modis and A. Debecker,
Diffusion of Technologies & Social Behavior, IIASA, (1991) 511-522. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/u94nc
Chaoslike States
Can Be Expected Before and After Logistic Growth, by T. Modis and
A. Debecker, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 41, (1992) 111-120. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/z6yf7
Fractal Aspects of
Natural Growth, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social
Change, 47, (1994) 63-73. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pvbqw
Learning from Experience
in Positioning New Computer Products, by T. Modis, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 41, (1992) 391-399. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/qgtx7
Innovation
in the Computer Industry, by T. Modis and A. Debecker, Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, 33, (1988) 267-278. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/xvbjp
Competition and Forecasts for Nobel Prize Awards, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting
& Social Change, 34, (1988) 95-102. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/e4udf
Book Review, Roger M. Cooke,
Experts in Uncertainty, Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1991,
by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 44, 1993. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/fyn2u
Book Review, Fred G. Thompson,
Looking Back On The Future, Futurescan International Inc., Ottawa,
Canada, 1992, 211 pages, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting
& Social Change, 45, 1994. See preprint DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/t3d24
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