a Predictions - 10 Years Later, Table of Contents
 
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Predictions - 10 Years Later, Table of Contents

PREFACE

PROLOGUE
Spicy Talk and a Stimulating Meal

1. SCIENCE AND FORETELLING
Invariants
 

  • Safety in Cars
     
  • Humans versus Machines
     
  • Do Animals All Die at the Same Age?
    The Bell-Shaped Curve of the Life Cycle
    The S-Curve of Cumulative Growth
    The Law of Natural Growth
     
  • Controls on Rabbit Populations
    Gauss for Statistics was Like Bach for Music-an Ingenious Forger

    2. NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK
    How Much Order Is There in "Random" Discoveries?
    Learning From Success
     

  • Could You Take Aim at an Apple on Your Son's Head?
     
  • A Real Case
     
  • The Industry Learning Curve
    Going West
    Mesopotamia, the Moon and the Matterhorn

    3. INANIMATE PRODUCTION LIKE ANIMATE REPRODUCTION
    Do Not Try to Forecast What You Already Know.
    Man-made Dinosaurs
    Mama Earth
    Did Christianity Begin Before Christ?

    4. THE RISE AND FALL OF CREATIVITY
    Mozart Dies of Old Age
    Did Einstein Publish Too Much?
    Can We Predict Our Own Death?
    Searching for Failures of the S-Curve Approach
     

  • An Unnatural Suicide Attempt
    A "Fertility" Template
    Contemporary Geniuses
    Innovation in Computer Making

    5. GOOD GUYS AND BAD GUYS COMPETE THE SAME WAY
    Criminal Careers
    Killer Diseases
    When Will There be a Miracle Drug for AIDS?

    6. A HARD FACT OF LIFE
    Straight Lines in Nature
    The Cultural Resistance to Innovation
    Unnatural Substitutions
    The Swedes are Coming
    Fishing and Prying

    7. "COMPETITION IS THE CREATOR AND THE REGULATOR"
    When it Rains it Pours
    Successive Substitutions
    Only One Front-Runner at a Time
    Transport Infrastructures
    The Primary Energy Picture
     

  • The Disease "Market"
    Nobel Prize Awards

    8. A COSMIC HEARTBEAT
    Waves at the Wall Street
    Matters of Life and Death
    Epitaphs

    9. REACHING THE CEILING EVERYWHERE
    Clocking the Transport of the Future
    Futuronics
     

  • On the Possibility and Desirability of Peace
     
  • Global Village in 2025

    10. IF I CAN, I WANT
    What Makes a Tourist
    The Nutritional Value of New Impressions
    From Tourism to S-curves
    From S-curves to Chaos
     

  • Before and After Chaos
    S-Curves and the If-I-Can-I-Want Law

     

    11. FORECASTING DESTINY
    Decision Non-makers
    A System's Predictability
     

  • Wasteful Computers
    Little Choice

     

    EPILOGUE

    APPENDIX A. MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION OF S-CURVES AND THE PROCEDURE FOR FITTING THEM ON DATA
    The Predator-Pray Equations
    The Malthusian Case: One Species Only
    One-to-One Substitutions: Two Competitors in a Niche
    Multiple Competition: Many Competitors at the Same Time
    Fitting and S-curve on a Set of Data Points

    APPENDIX B. EXPECTED UNCERTAINTIES ON S-CURVE FORECASTS

    APPENDIX C. ADDITIONAL FIGURES

    NOTES AND SOURCES

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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