————————————————————————————
Monthly
Discussion
The Gay Movement in America
Same-sex
marriages have been making front-page news for some time now in many parts of
the United States. The topic of homosexuals in general has been in the news
increasingly during recent decades. The question arises what kind of future
should we expect for the gay movement.
To study the future of homosexuals I will make the
hypothesis that their evolution follows a natural-growth process despite
possible objections of extreme rightists. My reasons for doing so are first
that the existence of homosexuals in society is as old as human society itself,
and second that the growth patterns I have looked at (as we’ll see below) do conform
to S-shaped curves, hallmark of natural growth in competition.
Exhibit 3 shows cumulative milestones in the
evolution of homosexuals. The data come from a timeline compiled by Aviva
Moster in the University of Pennsylvania B-GLAD 2001 Magazine.[1] The data is a compilation
of such events as:
·
1999:
VT Supreme Court rules gay couples must be granted the same benefits and
protections awarded married couples of the opposite sex.
·
1998:
President Clinton signs bill denying federal recognition of same-sex marriages.
·
1997:
Walt Whitman Community School, US’s first private school for lesbians and gays
opens in Dallas.
·
1992:
Colonel Cammermeyer of Washington State National Guard admits she is a lesbian
and is discharged dishonorably solely for this reason.
·
1942:
Men suspected of being sexually attracted to other men are castrated in Nazi
concentration camps.
·
1933:
Hitler bans gay press.
·
1916:
The Liberal Catholic Church, the first religious group to minister openly to
lesbians and gays, is founded in Sydney, Australia.
Milestones in Gay Evolution
Exhibit
3. We see the
cumulative number of significant news headlines concerning homosexuals
beginning at the turn of the 20th century.
The evolution shows a smooth exponential trend that
conforms to the early part of an S-curve (purple line). Its mid-point is in the
2040s, implying that things will be accelerating until then.
There is certainly some arbitrariness and
incompleteness in the data as compiled into this timeline. Therefore I looked
for corroboration at another set of data. Exhibit 4 shows the evolution of
same-sex rights in Canada. This data set concerns only gay-related legislature
in Canada. Again the data are cumulative numbers beginning in 1965.[2]
Evolution of Same-Sex Rights in Canada
Exhibit
4. We see the cumulative number of
same-sex legislature items passed in Canada since 1965. The purple line
is the early part of an S-curve. Green, yellow, and turquoise lines outline
short S-curve steps.
This time the evolution sows a clear stepwise growth
pattern. One can discern at least four small S-curves succeeding one another as
chapters of legislature become closed and new ones are opened. The overall
pattern (purple line) seems again exponential, i.e. early part of an S-curve.
The overall curve is to become half completed in the early 2020s.
The similarities between Exhibits 3 and 4 argue for
growth processes that still are in their early development phases. Yet they are
well established and therefore no longer run the risk of “infant mortality”.
There can be no lid on homosexual issues in the near future. Even if same-sex
marriages become outlawed in the short term, the gay movement will grow and
will not reach maturity¾and hence quietness¾for a number of decades.
One thing homosexuals in America are exploiting to
their advantage is the Internet. As I was searching for data on homosexuals I
came across an interesting observation concerning the digital divide.
Homosexuals have created an additional digital divide. The graph on the left
side of Exhibit 4 shows the traditional digital divide, where Americans,
Europeans, and Australasians dominate the use of the Internet in roughly
comparable ways. However, the graph on the right side of Exhibit 4 shows that
there is a further divide, in which homosexuals of North America are much more
numerous than their European or Australasian counterparts, and growing!
The Digital Divide
Internet
Users Gay
Internet Users
Exhibit
5. There is an additional digital divide when it comes to
gay populations. North America dominates the scene.