Competition and Forecasts for Nobel Prize Awards, by T. Modis, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 34, 1988, pages 95-102.



The evolution of Nobel prize awards is studied as a learning/growth process. A simple logistic function describes well and accounts for the competition, be it between individuals or between nations. The American niche appears to be 64% exhausted by 1987, implying a diminishing expected rate of laureates in the future. Europeans have been losing ground continuously from the beginning while the remaining world has recently received more awards. Projections to the year 2000 and beyond are given. Correlations with age support the Darwinian nature of the competition for Nobel prizes. Awards to women show peaks coincidental with outbursts of feminism.